There is a lot of conflicting information about the future demand for fossil fuels. However, the science is clear and the Albanese government must enact definitive action to control the threats to our environment from climate change.
As a signatory to the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Australia has undertaken to reduce emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and to reach net zero by 2050. The 2030 target is also defined as a total emissions budget over the 10 years 2021 to 2030 that is fixed at 4381 Mt CO2-e. Current emissions are about 440 Mt pa.
Tracking against the 2030 target, 2005 to 2050, Mt CO2-e
A new target to apply up to 2035 is to be reviewed this year. Climate change scientists are pushing for the 2035 target to be more ambitious than the current trajectory. 2024 was the hottest year yet recorded at a level of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850 to 1900). Not enough is being done to control global warming to be below the ultimate limit goal of 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
How is Australia going in meeting these goals?
Emissions for the year to 30 June 2024 were 441 Mt CO2-e. The target level for 2030 is 350 Mt. According to the greenhouse gas reporting by the DCCEEW, Australia is close to meeting these targets. However, the effectiveness of some of the methods being used, such as the safeguard mechanism and carbon offsets have been questioned. The Sydney Morning Herald has recently had stories about the doubtful effectiveness of so-called ‘human induced regeneration’ of native vegetation in arid regions.
Further policy actions have been implemented such as the new vehicle efficiency standards and more are in the feasibility/development stage.
We are a major exporter of coal and gas. Our reported emission measurements exclude the greenhouse gases that will be emitted when the exported fossil fuels are burned to generate energy.
How much more coal does the world need to mine?
Australia is a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that has 32 member countries, 13 association countries and four currently seeking membership (China, Colombia, Israel and Costa Rica).
The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management.
They have written regular reports on demand for fossil fuels in the short term but also the longer term impact on demand if the world is to achieve the climate change goal of net zero by 2050.
1. 2024 World Energy Outlook
Coal demand is set to reach an all-time high in 2024. In most advanced countries demand peaked a few years ago and is falling thanks to efficiency gains, electrification of transport and a rapid buildout of renewables. This trajectory is expected to be offset by growth in a few emerging and developing economies, such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam. Although industrial consumption also increased over that period, the power sector has been the main driver of coal demand growth. Overall, global coal demand is set to plateau in the next three years.
2. Requirements to achieve 2050 net zero
This 2023 report, Net zero roadmap: A global pathway to keep 1.5°C goal in reach contained these conclusions:
- Beyond projects that are already committed, any approvals of new oil and gas fields or new or expanded coal mines are incompatible with limiting global warming by 1.5°C and achieving net zero by 2050. Even for steelmaking, existing coal supplies are capable of meeting demand through to 2050.
- The fossil fuels that are mined in 2050 will be used in the production of non‐energy goods where the carbon is embodied in the product (like plastics), in plants with carbon capture, utilisation and storage and in sectors where low‐emissions technology options are scarce.
- Energy sector emissions remain worryingly high but clean energy technologies such as solar PV and electric vehicles are being adopted at unprecedented rates. Nevertheless, clean energy investment must more than double this decade if the net-zero goal is to be reached by 2050. In particular, clean energy investment in developing countries must increase significantly.
- Richer nations – which are largely responsible for the stock of emissions in the atmosphere driving the climate problem – are failing to help developing countries make the clean energy shift.
Carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS)
One uncertainty about achieving net zero is the reliance on technologies like CCUS. The IEA considers that the prospects for the rapid scaling up of CCUS are very uncertain for economic, political and technical reasons.
According to the World Resources Institute, the notion that CCUS can allow us to avoid or slow the process of phasing out fossil fuels is not only factually inaccurate but incredibly dangerous and would guarantee that we blow past our climate goals and put our collective future at risk.
The mining industry doesn’t agree
Michelle Manook, Chief Executive at FutureCoal, disagrees. This organisation is an alliance of ‘industry leaders committed to building a sustainable future for global coal’. Their response to the IEA reports has a different interpretation! What else would one expect?
This report underscores coal’s vital role in driving economies, creating jobs, and fuelling industrial growth. Nations like China, India, and emerging economies like Indonesia and Vietnam are harnessing coal for growth and self-sufficiency.
Futurecoal has strong faith in the ability of CCUS. ‘Coal is central to decarbonisation when paired with proven abatement technologies’, FutureCoal calls for increased investment in abatement technologies and balanced, fair policies supporting coal innovation.
Why are Australian governments still approving new fossil fuel projects?
Coal
It is a mystery why the federal government is still approving new or expanded coal mines. According to The Australia Institute, since May 2022, the federal environment minister has approved 10 new coal mines or expansions with 2,449 million tonnes of lifetime emissions. There are 22 additional proposals for new or expanded coal mines currently waiting for federal government approval.
Coal mines not only produce a product that will cause carbon emissions when it is burnt, the production process also creates significant emissions. The Australia Institute has estimated that the production and export of coal and gas (that undergoes the power intensive process of conversion to LNG) makes up 15% of Australia’s emissions. Much of these emissions are methane, the most virulent greenhouse gas.
Oil and gas
The government is still placing great importance on the use of gas as a transition fuel while renewables are being rolled out even continuing beyond 2050. However the Climate Council’s Powering Past Gas report predicts that gas has a small, shrinking and short-term role to play in our energy mix.
We can already meet much of our energy needs with renewables, like solar and wind. If we stopped exporting so much gas, current projects would be enough to supply our domestic gas needs for more than 60 years. With new gas projects in the US and Qatar producing massive amounts of new gas, at much lower costs, it’s highly unlikely that new Australian gas projects will be profitable.
So how can the government justify the approval of new coal mines and gas projects? There appears to be no decision-making process with a holistic assessment of whether the production is actually needed or beneficial economically, let alone for the planet. Individual companies are making applications for approval and are being assessed in isolation so there is no consideration of cumulative impacts. Presumably each company thinks their mines will be profitable throughout their long lifetimes.
This mining is also harmful to local environment. This is where another aspect of the inadequacies of the EPBC Act come into play.
The government is arguing that the mining projects will comply with the climate change policies – the Safeguard Mechanism will be used to reduce emissions, probably via offsets. There is also the argument that if we don’t sell the stuff some other country with lower standards will. The alternative argument is that, if Australia reduces it exports and therefore the overall market supply, prices may rise and incentivise the use of renewable energy sources.
Our environment laws fail to protect the environment from its biggest threat: climate change. Hard questions need to be asked of candidates in the upcoming federal election about their policies on coal and gas expansion and reform of our environment laws.