The Australian government’s Centre for Population published its annual update, the 2025 Population Statement in December. See STEP Matters, Issue 230 for some detail on these statements.
There is no let-up in the expectation that growth will continue at current levels despite the increasing concern about our logistical ability to provide housing and necessary infrastructure to meet the extra demand. The states have to manage this extra demand and seem to have little say in the matter. Then local governments are at the coal face of balancing the demands of growth while trying to meet other goals of conserving biodiversity and creating green space in the face of cost shifting by the state and federal governments.
The federal government has a fixation with continuing growth at current levels without any consideration that this cannot go on forever.
Population projections
Australia’s population at 30 June 2026 is estimated to be 27.6 million. The statement projects that Australia’s population will reach 31.5 million by 30 June 2036. The most significant factor in the projection is the net number of immigrants. The assumption is made that that current levels will reduce from 306,000 in 2025−26 to a long-term figure of 235,000 pa. The recent numbers since 2019 have been affected by the disruption caused by the COVID lockdowns. The actual average since 2019 is 266,000 pa so there has been overcompensation for the border closures.
The media loves to quote the rate of growth that is expected to ‘slow’ to 1.3% in 2025–26 and 1.2% from 2026–27 onwards, lower than the average of 1.4% experienced in the 2010s. The expression of growth as a reducing percentage ignores the fact that the actual numbers are still increasing and have to be accommodated in a finite area of land. The total of births minus deaths plus net migration is projected to still be 350,000 in in 2035−36 compared with 360,000 in 2025−26.
Historically the projections have understated migration numbers as the movement of temporary migrants is not adequately controlled, especially as departure when a temporary resident’s visa expires is often delayed as they apply for an extension or another type of visa. This particularly applies to students.
The government and media create the perception that migration numbers are normal. However the long term assumption of 235,000 pa compares with averages of less than 100,000 pa during the 1990s. Even during the post-war migration boom numbers were around 90,000 pa.
Significance of current growth from migration
The significance of high immigration is demonstrated by the fact that that it took 12 years for net migration to add one million people to Australia’s population up to 2000. As of mid-2025, it had taken just 2.5 years to add one million people. At the same time the number of people living in Australia on temporary visas that have not been here long enough to be counted in the official population figures (at least 12 months) continues to increase.
Projection to June 2036
The Centre for Population projects that our population will balloon by 3,860,000 over the 11 years to 2035–36, with most (80%) of this growth occurring in the capital cities, which are projected to swell by 3,080,000 over the 11 years. Sydney’s growth would be 790,000.
Projection to 2065
Population Australia’s report includes projections out to 2065. The main scenario is that net immigration will continue at current ‘normal’ levels of 235,000 pa. The nation’s population is projected to balloon by an insane 13.4 million over the next 41 years to 2065–66, with most (81%) of this growth occurring in the capital cities, which are projected to swell by 10,850,000 over the next 41 years.
This rate of population growth is comparable to adding another Sydney, Melbourne and Perth to the nation’s current population in just 41 years. All of the housing and infrastructure in these three major cities would need to be replicated, and water and energy supplies greatly expanded. Can this be imagined let alone planned for? Can the current belief that current migration can continue forever be changed? What situation will be reached where governments get the message?
The bottom line is that the Australia’s fixation with high migration will lead to permanent housing, infrastructure, water and energy shortages, as well as environmental damage.
We might have a greater workforce to build the necessary houses and infrastructure but the cost will keep rising. The land available is finite; greenfield sites are becoming scarce, so the alternative of reconstruction of existing suburbs will be required that is more expensive. This level of development is impossible if we are to meet the net zero greenhouse gas emissions objective.
Change to net migration needed to stabilise population level
It is unrealistic to expect Australia’s population to continue to grow indefinitely. The centre has modelled a case study where the population is stabilised at 30 million through a reduction in net overseas migration. It explores the implications for population ageing and growth in the working-age population.
To stabilise the population at 30 million, net overseas migration would have to fall from its current projection of 235,000 to 32,000 per year by 2035–36, assuming other aspects of the baseline projections, such as birth rates and life expectancy, are unchanged. By 2035–36, life expectancy is projected to reach 87.1 years for women and 83.4 years for men. However, the birth rates are questionable. The total fertility rate is projected to increase from the current 1.47 births per woman to 1.6. This is going against the current trends of lower birth rate both here and overseas.
Sustained lower migration levels would lead to fewer births, which would eventually result in natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) from 2049–50. Continuing new migrants are needed to keep the total population stable.
The report considers the impact on housing demand from net migration. While the demand for housing among permanent migrants is in line with the total population, the immediate impact of reductions to the permanent migration program on housing demand would be relatively limited. This is because many permanent visas are granted to individuals already in Australia on a temporary visa – in 2024–25, this was 55% of the 185,000 permanent migration program visa grants.